The events of last Thursday were momentous and will shape the future of our country for years to come. Against all the odds and certainly against expectations of the Government and the markets the British people decided that, after 43 years as a member of the EU, it was no longer for us. I hear that message and respect and agree with that decision and the Government must too. In my constituency the margin of the vote to Leave was higher than the national figure at around 55%-45%. With a turnout of 72% of the British public, which was the highest in a UK-wide election since 1992, 17,410,742 people voting Leave – the biggest vote in British history for anything – and with all the regions of the UK voting to ‘Leave’ outside London, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it was a solid endorsement. Regardless of your position on the Leave/Remain question this was certainly a victory for democracy and I hope that this level of engagement on important political issues can be maintained in the future.
Having campaigned for the ‘Leave’ side and made my views clear in a series of public meetings around the constituency, articles and podcasts I obviously welcomed the result though I was not confident of which way the vote would go, as it was too close to call. I also appreciate that almost half of those voting wanted a different result and there is work to be done to bring the country together again as we face the new challenges of the UK’s role outside the EU. There will be concerns amongst many about how the future pans out for our country and undoubtedly there will be a period of uncertainty. Nobody ever said that a vote to ‘Leave’ would be easy but it is incumbent on the Government now to set out their commitment to an orderly withdrawal from the EU and to dispel that uncertainty as promptly as possible.
I have heard complaints from some that the ‘Leave’ side have not set out their plans and started invoking the withdrawal process. However, it must be remembered, the ‘Leave’ campaigners are not a government in waiting. They are simply a group of campaigners from all parties, including a minority of ministers, who came together to articulate the cause for leaving the EU. The referendum we have just held was not a ‘consultation’ with the people, it was an ‘instruction’ from the people. It is now up to the government of the day to carry out that instruction in the best interests of all the people of the UK. The Prime Minister made clear in the House of Commons on Monday that he understood this and will help put it into effect whilst he remains in office.
As I said several times during this campaign the level of debate on both sides could have been much better and not surprisingly there are recriminations now about who said what about what to whom. However I also made clear, whatever the result, how imperative it was that each side accepted the democratic choice of the people and made the most of it and moved on. Democracy is democracy and it cannot be rejected selectively just because some people do not like the answer and now selectively challenge some of the arguments put forward. I therefore take strong exception to those people who are now claiming that the referendum was in some way not fair and that it should be re-run or its decision simply ignored by Parliament.
That is a gross insult to the many millions of people who came out to vote to ‘Leave’ and did so with a strong and genuine belief. In some cases people turned out to vote who had not voted in a national election for many years, if at all. If would be a betrayal of their belief in democracy if we effectively tell them that their vote and their view counted less than other people’s and can be ignored. I am afraid that is just the sort of attitude which has characterised the views of many of the EU as a remote institution deaf to the concerns of ordinary people. In the case of previous votes by Denmark and Ireland the EU refused to accept the result of referendums and effectives demanded the people vote again until they came up with the ‘right’ answer. That will not be happening in the UK, certainly if I have anything to do with it.
Some have also queried whether the decision on Europe should be decided by a referendum rather than left up to MPs. Strangely only one constituent made this case to me before the result. It is worth considering that when we voted to stay in the then EEC in 1975 it was as a result of a referendum. Forty-one years on it is absolutely right that again such an important constitutional matter should be decided by the people, as it has more recently on arguably lesser matters such as independence for Scotland and the nature of the voting system. I have long favoured a referendum to decide our future in or out of Europe and I praise the Prime Minister for bravely giving that power to the British people in a referendum where my vote and his vote counted no more or less than any of our constituents. Given his own genuinely held position he may be regretting that now but it was the right thing to do. The UK has had an uneasy relationship with the EU for many years. Either way, it was absolutely imperative to resolve the issue and settle the uncertainty once and for all so we could move on one way or another. That has now been done and there is no turning back.
I regret that the Prime Minister has decided that it is appropriate for him to step down but I fully respect his reasoning for doing so. It is important that the transition to a new leader is carried out as smoothly and urgently as possible. A timetable for that has now been set out. David Cameron will continue in office until my party, the Conservative Party, has selected a new leader who becomes Prime Minister. That will not lead to a general election just as it did not when John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Gordon Brown from Tony Blair in 2008. In addition we now have the ‘Fixed Terms Parliament’ Act which dictates that the next election will not take place until May 2020 unless it is overturned with a majority of over two thirds of the Commons.
This week the candidates for leader of the Conservative Party will be announced by Thursday. If more than two of my colleagues throw their hats into the ring it will then be up to Conservative MPs to whittle the field down to two candidates. The final vote will then be given to all paid up members of the Conservative Party in the country including those locally in East Worthing & Shoreham. The winner will be announced and in place by September 9th and it will then be up to him or her to put in place a new Government and set about the renegotiation with our EU partners. To start that process it will be necessary to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which then gives us up to two years to complete the withdrawal procedure and thrash out the details.
The Prime Minister has already announced that a Government unit to oversee the renegotiation is being put in place under Cabinet Office Minister, Oliver Letwin MP. Meanwhile, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been working with the Bank of England to restore stability to the financial markets which inevitably reacted sharply initially to a result they had not factored in. However, as always happens with the financial markets they will settle down and adjust as new opportunities arise. The former Governor of the Bank of England, Lord King, set this out very clearly yesterday and I have put his interview on my website. For example, exporting companies have seen share prices rise as businesses like Rolls Royce aerospace benefits from £20m uplift in profits for every one cent rise in the Dollar against Sterling.
In addition we heard yesterday that the Prime Minters of Australia and New Zealand urgently want to open up new trade deals with the UK, as will many other countries, something that we could not do bilaterally whilst members of the EU. I believe that many other new opportunities will rapidly emerge that will benefit British businesses and British people.
I am aware that many questions have been raised about exactly what will happen and in most cases they cannot be answered until the negotiations are underway. I will continue to post information on my website and as always will continue dialogue with constituents. However it is important to acknowledge that nothing will change for some time. People will still be able to travel freely around the EU, we will still be paying into the EU budget and will still be covered by all EU rules and regulations until our withdrawal is complete probably not until 2019. After that it will be up to us to decide which of those policies we retain or reject depending on the negotiation process. I fully appreciate that this process will not be easy and there will be a bumpy road ahead, but as I set out throughout the Referendum campaign I genuinely believe that the future for the UK outside of the EU is a much brighter one. It will not be long before we will be asking ourselves, ‘why on earth did we not do it sooner?’ As always if you have any specific questions I am always happy to help and you know how to get hold of me.